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Feb 27, 2012
Posted by Amit Kumar, Ph.D.
Over the last ten years, Bin-Laden's Al-Qaeda
organization has suffered attrition; Al-Qaeda
affiliates have risen in strength and numbers;
and Islamic democracies have replaced despots,
often western supported or at least tolerated,
in what is called the Arab Spring. These
developments carry serious implications for US
security interests. This piece delves into
these implications and comes out with measures
to secure US interests.
Decline of
Al-Qaeda Central
American and Western counterterrorism efforts
at decimating the leadership and cadres of Bin
Laden's Al-Qaeda over the years that culminated
in his killing last year may have resulted in
the decline of what is interestingly called
Al-Qaeda Central, the organization that was
established by Usama Bin Laden to implement a
three point agenda, namely i) to orchestrate
the overthrow through violence of American and
western supported despots in the Arab world who
were apparently quelling democratic dissent;
ii) to wage a violent war against the US and
its interests outside the Arab world; and iii)
to set up a global Islamic Caliphate. To a
large extent, these counterterrorism efforts
resulted in the diminution of Al-Qaeda
Central's finances as well.
Rise of
Al-Qaeda Affiliates
The US hunt for Al-Qaeda Central and the loss
of financial support for the Bin Laden
organization led to the mushrooming and
self-reliance of Al-Qaeda affiliates in Africa
and Asia that wanted to champion local
resentment against Western supported potentates
and translate an Islamic vision for their
regions into violent jihad by adopting the
ideology and practices of Al-Qaeda Central.
These franchises fused local aspirations with
the ambition to make their movements a part of
the quest for a global Islamic Caliphate on the
lines espoused and propagated by Al-Qaeda.
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) in the
Sahara-Sahel region; Al-Shabaab in Somalia;
Boko Haram in Nigeria; Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI)
in Iraq; the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group
(LIFG) in Libya; Al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen, the Taliban in
Afghanistan; and the Lashkar-e-Tayibba in India
and Pakistan are some such affiliates.
The proliferation and strengthening of these
Al-Qaeda affiliates proved to be a dilemma for
the United States. On one hand the US was
successful in causing and hastening the
attrition of Al-Qaeda Central; on the other
hand it had to deploy its counterterrorism
assets against a slew of these affiliates,
often in partnership with governments who were
fighting these affiliates. What complicated
this effort were the seemingly dubious
intentions of these partnering governments.
While their populations were in most cases
rabidly anti-American as well as anti-despot,
the leaders were adopting a pro-Western stance
as well as trying to play to the anti-US
sentiments of their populations.
The Arab
Spring
Over the past little more than a year, these
disgruntled populations started what is known
as the Arab Spring, when democratic, sometimes
violent uprisings against unpopular potentates
in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen resulted in
the overthrow of these dictators and the
establishment of Islamic governments in their
place, some of whom had a history of
association with Al-Qaeda; while others were
moderately Islamic. All of these movements had
strong American and western support.
Implications
for US Security Interests
While these movements have resulted in the
overthrow of despots and ushered in what seems
to be a modicum of democratic rule, most of
these movements have brought in Islamic forces
which are either against the US or are very
skeptical of any American influence in their
countries. The time when Americans were
gleefully rejoicing at the onset of democratic
rule in these Arab countries may have passed.
The rise to prominence of former LIFG figures
in Libya; the anti-American attitude of the
Muslim Brotherhood dominated government in
Egypt manifest in the recent arrests and trial
of American NGO officials; the uncertain
political future of Yemen after the resignation
of President Saleh and the continuing
pernicious growth of AQAP; the possible rise of
Al-Qaeda in Iraq in the eventuality of a
post-Assad Syria; and the recent official
merger of Al-Shabaab with Al-Qaeda in Somalia
all seem to be harbingers of the grave and
serious security and terrorism related
challenges that are staring the US in the face.
While these democratic movements may have
co-opted Al-Qaeda's vision of freeing their
countries from the yoke of oppressive despots,
its anti-Americanism and its aspirations for
these countries to be part of a global
Caliphate still remain unfulfilled—it is a
possibility if not a certainty that these
movements may veer towards playing by the
Al-Qaeda ideological rulebook. The US has to be
cautious about the future trajectory of the
Arab Spring and be prepared to adopt strong
measures against anti-US interests in these and
other countries affected by the Al-Qaeda
malaise.
US
Countermeasures
The US may be wise to forge or continue to
maintain strong military, counter-terrorism,
and developmental cooperation with all these
fledging democratic countries that benefited
and may continue to benefit from the
transformation towards popular rule. The US may
also want to ensure that it does not allow any
terrorist group with prior or current links to
Al-Qaeda to gain ascendancy in any democratic
set-up. Any drive or desire towards violence on
the part of the actors in these movements to
achieve democratic objectives for the sole
purpose of fomenting anti-Americanism needs to
be quelled. The US may also like to encourage
regional stakeholders to play a salient role in
implementing strong counterterrorism measures.
For example, the actions of the Kenyan and
Somalian governments against Al-Shabaab;
Algeria's cooperation with Mali and Mauretania
in wearing down the AQIM; and Pakistani,
Afghani, Iranian, and Indian cooperation in
tackling the Taliban menace deserve kudos as
measures to advance US security interests. The
US should urge the United Nations
counterterrorism regimes to continue to work
steadfastly to ensure that the countries
experiencing the Arab Spring, and other
countries where Al-Qaeda's ideology is popular,
build strong, effective, and lasting
Counterterrorism and Countering the Financing
of Terrorism (CFT) capacities.
Conclusion
Al-Qaeda Central may have declined, but the
Al-Qaeda ideology still appears to hold sway in
certain regions. Its violent methods may be
seem less attractive now but its guiding
principles of anti-Americanism and the
establishment of a global Islamic caliphate do
and may continue to find new recruits in the
Al-Qaeda affiliates that are still championing
its ideology. America has to remain ever
vigilant that the democratic populations of
newly emancipated countries that ushered in the
Arab Spring do not subscribe to this ideology.
Or else the hope of the Arab Spring may give
rise to the despair of its aftermath.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Center for National Policy.
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