Mar 7, 2012
Posted by Gregory Aftandilian
Last week, Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi, head
of Egypt's SCAF (Supreme Council of the Armed
Forces), finally came to understand that the
United States was serious about cutting or
suspending the $1.3 billion in U.S. military
assistance after phone calls from President
Obama and visits by senior members of the U.S.
military and U.S. Congress, and decided to let
the indicted Americans and other foreign NGO
democracy workers leave the country after
posting large bail money. Although some
members of Congress, like Senator John McCain,
praised this decision (McCain was one of the
people who met with Tantawi) it is unlikely to
mollify Congress as a whole; many members are
still upset over the fact that IRI
(International Republican Institute), NDI
(National Democratic Institute for
International Affairs) and Freedom House are
still facing criminal charges, that their
offices are closed and their equipment still
confiscated, and that Egyptian nationals who
work for these organizations are under arrest
or indictment. These organizations retain
powerful friends in Congress who are unlikely
to restore a business-as-usual approach to
Egypt so long as these organizations are under
indictment.
The NGO issue and the
lifting of the travel ban has also created a
nationalist backlash in Egypt. Judges in
the case essentially resigned from the
proceedings after they got wind that the
Egyptian military decided the lift the travel
ban, saying that the decision was interference
in the judicial process. Most Egyptian
political factions have sided with these
judges. The Muslim Brotherhood speaker of
the lower house of parliament, Saad Katatni,
for example, stated that all those involved in
the decision to lift the travel ban would be
held accountable. He also said that a
special parliamentary session will be held on
March 11 on this issue, and that he would
summon Prime Minister Ganzouri and other
government officials for such an inquiry into
the circumstances of the case. Even some
liberal Egyptians, normally supportive of
democracy NGOs, have criticized the lifting of
the travel ban for legal but, essentially,
nationalist reasons. There is a general
feeling in Egypt that the ruling generals
buckled to U.S. pressure, and this action has
stained Egypt's honor. However, for
political reasons, the Brotherhood's wrath is
directed at civilians like Ganzouri, not
Tantawi. The Brotherhood sees the next
few months as crucial in terms of its place in
the Egyptian political system and does not want
to pick a fight with the ruling generals over
this issue.
Indeed, there are a lot of
developments taking place in Egypt that are
overshadowing the NGO issue domestically.
Parliament is in the process of trying to
figure out who should be appointed to the
100-member committee to write the new Egyptian
constitution. This constitutional writing
process is very important because not only will
it set out the division of powers between the
parliament and the presidency, but it will also
deal with the role of religion in legislation
and civil rights. In May and June,
presidential elections will take place, and
afterwards, the military has promised to go
back to the barracks. But what role the
military will retain in the political sphere is
an open question and is subject to much debate
within Egypt. And overshadowing all of
this is the downturn in the economy and the
lack of personal security that is affecting
everyday life for the Egyptian
people.
The bilateral U.S.-Egyptian
relationship is in for some rough sledding in
large part because each country has different
priorities. For the United States,
especially Congress, not only does it want to
see a democratic process go forward
(constitution writing that ensures civil rights
for all Egyptians regardless of religion, and
free and fair presidential elections), but the
NGO issue resolved in a way that would absolve
these organizations and staff from any
wrongdoing and restore their property.
For most Egyptians, the priority is also to see
the democratic process go forward, but on the
issue of religion and civil rights in the new
constitution as well as the NGO indictments,
they want no interference or even scrutiny from
the U.S. Congress on these matters. And
having finally caved in to U.S. pressure on the
lifting of the travel ban for American
democracy NGO workers, the Egyptian military is
in no mood to accommodate the United States on
other domestic issues, especially after
receiving so much flak on this
one.
Hence, the continuation of U.S.
military aid to Egypt at this juncture is
uncertain. The Obama administration will
probably weigh in with Congress to say that
strategic equities are at stake in the
relationship and that, with the travel ban
lifted, the aid should go forward. But
Congress will be watching the NGO trials
closely as well as how Coptic Christians view
the new constitution, among other issues.
If the outcomes of these developments are not
favorable in the eyes of many members of
Congress, then a suspension of aid is a real
possibility.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Center for National Policy.
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