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Apr 24, 2012
Posted by Dale Pfeiffer
Robert Gabriel Mugabe, President of Zimbabwe,
has been firmly in control of his country's
affairs for 32 years. He is 88 years old
and, since 2008, it has been rumored he suffers
from prostate cancer. A recent trip to
Singapore, at least the eighth in the past
year, sparked speculation again he was dying
and the long awaited and feared regime change
was imminent. As before he defied those
anticipating his demise. But we should be
anticipating it. Life has its limits and
his is near. The time to prepare for this
is now.
Constitutionally Mugabe's death
would put his Vice President in charge for
three months until elections could be
arranged. What kind of transition would
occur is crucial. Mugabe is surrounded by
long time cronies, many of whom probably would
like to succeed him. There is also an
active political opposition currently holding a
majority in parliament and the Prime Minister's
and cabinet posts. Transition could go in
different directions.
Mugabe's rule has
not been benign. His people have
experienced periodic actions which could be
considered terrorism on a scale exceeding what
the world is currently decrying in Syria.
In the early part of his rule he unleashed the
army against the Ndebele tribe, suspecting they
were about to take up arms against him.
The result was the death of some 20,000 men,
women and children, most innocent
victims. From time to time suspected or
real challengers to his rule experienced
'accidents'. Confronted in the mid-1990s
with a movement by liberation war veterans who
felt they were being denied just reward for
their service, Mugabe first tried to assuage
them by handing out cash payments, gutting the
government's budget in the process and setting
off an economic downward spiral. When
that did not satisfy their grievances he
encouraged them to invade the commercial farms
owned and operated by the country's whites,
resulting in many being killed, beaten and
tortured. This destroyed one of the
country's main economic assets which produced
surpluses for home consumption and exports and
jobs for about 350,000 farm laborers. It
also all but wiped out an extensive
well-developed agro-industrial capacity. This
legacy has left many wounds - economic,
political and human - which need to be
healed.
Throughout Robert Mugabe
pretended to be the democratic leader of his
country, controlling and distorting the
institutions of democracy to sustain his
power. When an opposition arose in
response to his arbitrary rule, economic
mismanagement, and corruption, he resorted to
manipulating the election process to win by
fraud and intimidation. Eventually his
weapon became violence. Opponents were
threatened, jailed, beaten and murdered.
He called upon the war veterans, by now most of
who were jobless youths not even born at the
time of the liberation fight, to carry out much
of this terror. But he did not hesitate
also to employ the police and military.
Thousands suffered but in the end he could not
defeat the opposition who managed in one
instance to defeat a referendum he tabled to
change the constitution to his advantage.
They finally beat him in an election in 2008
for the presidency. His response was to
refuse to concede his loss until his neighbors
in southern Africa applied pressure to make him
accept the result, which he did to a
degree. He acceded only partly, letting
his opponent become Prime Minister while he
remained President. This forced marriage
remains in place and a continual contest is in
train whereby his side tries to thwart the
opposition's efforts to deal with the country's
problems.
The next act, if he
survives physically, is planned to be another
election no later than 2013, which again he and
his supporters may try to steal with
terror. If he dies, there could be an
internal struggle among his supporters who know
the benefits of power, particularly in terms of
pocketing the country's treasure for
themselves. This could also involve
violence and terror. The people of
Zimbabwe deserve a better outcome and a right
to again have the chance to develop their
country based on democratic principles and
economic growth benefiting all, which is what
was planned in 1980 when the war of liberation
ended. Rhodesia was to evolve into
Zimbabwe where peace and prosperity were to be
for all its citizens and not to the benefit of
a minority group, then white and now black.
The next blog will present some
ideas for diplomatic and developmental
interventions so that the transition can avoid
violence and lay the groundwork for achieving
what was intended in 1980. Subsequent
blogs will focus on specific problem areas
facing the Zimbabweans and the international
community (including importantly neighboring
countries) in managing this return to democracy
and growth. Time is short.
The views expressed in this blog are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Center for National Policy.
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