Feb 5, 2013
Posted by Gregory Aftandilian
Egyptian President Morsi and the secular
opposition are locked in a
bitter power struggle where neither side
appears willing to compromise.
Although the high level of violence
between the secular protestors and
the police forces under Morsi's control over
the past couple of months
may abate somewhat, both sides are in for a
long boxing match. Morsi,
despite giving lip service to the idea of
dialogue with the opposition,
refuses to contemplate a national unity
government because he hopes for a
Muslim Brotherhood win in the April
parliamentary elections. For its
part, the secular opposition, fearing such a
Brotherhood win in
parliament, wants to force Morsi to compromise
now and is using street
protests as a tactic. In the meantime,
the Egyptian economy continues
to deteriorate and ongoing instability keeps
potential foreign investors
away.
The events over the past
few months reveal that
Egypt is a deeply divided society.
President Morsi and his Muslim
Brotherhood allies appear intent on capturing
the levers of power--that
is, not only maintaining a hold on the
presidency but parliament as
well. The Egyptian high court disbanded
the Brotherhood-dominated lower
house of parliament last spring (leaving only
the weaker upper house or
Shura Council in Brotherhood hands) and Morsi
is intent on taking the
lower house back. Elections to the lower
house are likely to be held in
April, and Morsi and the Brotherhood do not
want anything to distract
or derail them from winning that prize.
The Brotherhood is already
gearing up its social-welfare programs in
Egypt's poor neighborhoods as
part of its vote-getting drive. With
their eye on the prize, Morsi and
the Brotherhood see political compromise as
something to be avoided at
all costs. When asked about the demands
of the secular National
Salvation Front to form a national salvation
government, Morsi's
spokesman stated on February 2 that the outcome
of the parliamentary
elections will result in a "true national
salvation government that
reflects the street."
Believing that Morsi and
his Brotherhood allies,
through police intimidation and vote-rigging,
will do all they can to
win the elections for the Brotherhood, the
secular opposition wants to
force Morsi to bend now. The secular
oppositionists are saying that
they will only enter into a dialogue with Morsi
if he is willing to
bring them into the government. If not,
then dialogue with him is a
waste of time. They have only engaged in
a dialogue with other
political forces under the auspices of
Al-Azhar, the prestigious Sunni
Muslim university, but that event was aimed
chiefly at denouncing the
violence.
The secular opposition,
which is by no means
unified, has concluded that their only viable
tactic at this point is
continual denunciation of Morsi and more street
protests. For example,
on February 1, the National Salvation Front,
representing the political
forces of former IAEA chairman Mohammed
El-Baradei, former foreign
minister Amre Moussa, and leftist leader
Hamdeen Sabahi, stated that
"Morsi and the Brotherhood bear the
responsibility behind the tension
prevailing in Egypt during the last two
months." The statement went on
to say that this tension "is because of the
Brotherhood's insistence on
ignoring the legitimate demands of most
Egyptians which call for forming
a national salvation government, forming a
committee to modify the
constitution's articles written by the Muslim
Brotherhood and their
allies, relieving the Attorney General of his
post, establishing a
fact-checking committee to investigate violent
acts which started on
January 25..."
On February 4, the National
Salvation Front issued
another statement saying it will participate in
a mass demonstration
called "Departure" that is planned for February
8. The aim of the
demonstration, and presumably of future ones,
is to compel Morsi to
accept the Front's demands as outlined on
February 1. Most likely, in
response to these protests, the Brotherhood
directed the Shura Council
to come up with new laws to allow security
forces to "control protests
and confront thuggery." One Brotherhood
member of the Shura Council
said there was a pressing need to "impose an
iron fist on armed thugs
and stand up to saboteurs and provocateurs."
This phrase is similar to
the one that Morsi has used to disparage the
secular street protestors.
Hence, until the April
parliamentary elections are
held, Egypt is likely to witness more
street protests by the opposition
and more intransigence from Morsi and his
Brotherhood allies. The
latter group sees the demands of the former as
unacceptable, while the
former is intent on resisting the Brotherhood's
monopolization of power.
With neither side willing to compromise,
more instability is likely.
For the average Egyptian not involved in
this bitter struggle, this
means continued economic stress, as the price
of imported goods keeps
going up, jobs are increasingly scarce, and
foreign investors keep their
money away from the country.
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