China: Fragile Superpower

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The Center for National Policy (CNP) was fortunate to host professor Susan Shirk at a lunchtime discussion focused on her recent book China: Fragile Superpower. The book is premised on the notion that to truly understand China’s actions as a country, you must understand the intrinsic insecurity of the Communist Party (CPC) leadership. Seen through this prism, seemingly irrational actions by the Chinese leadership can be better explained and more deeply understood.

Professor Shirk, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of East Asia and Pacific Affairs, began by describing the myriad of changes China has undergone in recent decades. These include expanding access to the outside world via the internet and international travel; domestic tension as a result of growing economic disparity between rural and urban China; and staggering environmental damage that has accompanied China’s economic growth.

Shirk went on to suggest that the CPC leadership doubts its ability to maintain “social stability” as China changes domestically and the world continues to globalize.  According to Shirk, the CPC leadership consists largely of technocrats with no special calling as leaders. They recognize that they are interchangeable, and are confronting the difficult prospect of losing everything if the regime collapses. The growing domestic tension, coupled with the deep seated insecurity of its leaders, she said, leads the Chinese to make choices many in the outside would view as irrational.

An example of this can be seen in China’s behavior towards Taiwan. Rationally, China should not be obsessed with Taiwan, yet it is. Shirk said Taiwan is a small island that doesn’t pose a significant threat to the mainland. However, the Chinese leadership uses Taiwan to shore up domestic support by playing the part of strong, hard line, tough leaders. Thus, China is willing to provoke the much more powerful United States in an effort to build support among the endemic Chinese population.

Shirk concluded by suggesting that the Chinese leadership would prefer to rise peacefully. They don’t want to clash with the United States and they don’t want to go to war. However, as China becomes more heavily involved in the pressures of a globalized world the insecurity and desperation of the Communist leadership might increase. As a result the United States would be wise to consider that Chinese actions are not always what they seem; instead their actions are choreographed for the consumption of the domestic Chinese audience.